Why is ‘The Queen’s Gambit’ Netflix’s biggest show of 2020?
Last week we saw something we hadn’t seen in a long time on Netflix
A streak that nearly beat what is considered the biggest race on Netflix this year, if ever. Between March 22 and April 17, King tiger was at the top of the Top 10 rankings for 27 consecutive days. To date, no other show has been able to topped Netflix’s Top 10 list for so long.
Therefore…The queen’s gambit lost, right? It cannot exceed the numbers that King tiger introduced earlier this year?
It may be true. But there is also a decent chance – indeed, a fairly probable chance – that it is wrong. Because there is a case to be made which, during the last month, The queen’s gambit (which stars Anya Taylor-Joy) has controlled Netflix like no other show, including King tiger—A in 2020.
I feel confident in this theory because of a Top 10 ranking system I use all year round. The formula is quite simple: a show or a movie earns points based on its position in the Top 10 each day. I then add these points up over an extended period of time to see how viral a project stays in the long run.
I think there are a lot of benefits to viewing Netflix data this way. Because when we just look at the literal digits of the viewing time, it’s only a surface view of what separates a show from becoming “popular” and a show becoming. viral.
For example, Netflix reported that Pawl was the most popular new original to hit the streaming service in 2020 – which was, yes, technically true. But that was only true because more and more people subscribed to Netflix over time.
As you can see these Statista data, Netflix is expected to gain nearly 15 million subscribers in the United States and over 30 million subscribers worldwide between December 2019 and December 2020. So obviously the roughly 70 million American viewers who watched King tiger in the first quarter of 2020 (Netflix saw a huge jump in subscribers in the first three months of the year) cannot compete with the nearly 75 million subscribers who watched Pawl.
And that’s where the Top 10 ranking system comes in. With this formula, every show on Netflix shares a level playing field. By evaluating the day-to-day placement of a show in the Top 10 rankings, we can judge projects based on how much of the subscriber base, a program captures as opposed to how much subscribers watch a program.
In this spirit, The queen’s gambit clearly outperformed a show like Pawl. The latter program spent 15 days at the top of the Top 10 list between September 18 and October 2. Pawl would stay in the Top 10 leaderboards for 28 days and rack up 225 points, just enough for 19th place in the 2020 leaderboard. That point total falls behind a host of other shows, including Dead to Me, 13 Reasons Why, The Haunting of Bly Manor, Schitt’s Creek, Love is Blind, Avatar: The Last Airbender-The list is lengthened increasingly.
But we are exactly 28 days away The queen’s gambitrace – the same number of days Pawl spent on the Top 10 of the charts – and the Anya Taylor-Joy show amassed 270 points. That’s good enough for 11th place on the annual charts.
And guess what? The queen’s gambit isn’t even close to being finished. After giving up his first place, Pawl quickly fell from the Top 10 of the charts. But since he lost his No.1 grip, The queen’s gambit stayed in second place and continued to accumulate more and more points.
This trajectory is much more similar to King tiger that it is at Pawl. Which means we have to rethink the way we look The queen’s gambitTop 10 achieved in the past month.
Thanks to a fifth place in the Top 10, The Queen‘Gambit s accumulated 270 points in the last 28 days, ten points less than the maximum possible. It’s only two points less than King tiger won in its first 28 days.
Shortly after this historic race, King tiger started to move further down the top 10 list. The show would only come off the charts on May 9, which means King tiger saw 50 consecutive days in the Top 10. In total, that represented a total of 387 points – the highest number of any Netflix Originals in 2020.
So at this point it’s the number The queen’s gambit continues. So far my ranking system shows that The queen’s gambit kept pace King tiger. And if the Anya Taylor-Joy program can maintain that, it could very well become the undisputed No.1 show on Netflix in 2020.