The art market will have a good year, but will underperform 2021

In 2020, the art market was valued at $ 50 billion, a decrease of about $ 14 billion from the previous year. Although the final numbers for 2021 are not yet known, it can be assumed that the market made up for this loss and may have even passed its all-time high of 2014, which stood at around $ 68 billion. The strength of the market this year has been widely praised: galleries have rebounded strongly, fairs have recorded strong returns and the auction market has been in turmoil. It has been a promising year following the economic concerns that painted the mini crisis of the pandemic. But it would be premature to announce a new era for the art market, one that will definitely cross the ceiling of $ 70 billion that the market has repeatedly approached before declining cyclically. Several unsustainable factors may have played a key role in the success of 2021. One was a delayed wave of supply that was held up in 2020. A lack of supply, especially top-notch art, is this. which typically hampers growth after particularly strong years, but this year saw the phenomenon reversed after collectors first decided to sit down. the pandemic, then realized that now was the perfect time to cash in on some of their works – and they were rewarded. Another fundamentally “controversial” aspect is the growing market share that results from exclusively investment-oriented incentives. While art has been a financial asset for most of the last century, the low interest rate environment since the 2008 financial crisis has driven more money than ever into alternative investments, and hence the market. of art, than ever before. With rate hikes on the horizon, some headwinds could slow this trend and economic woes, which still seem to loom, could threaten the art market like any other asset class. If there is no indication that the art market is in danger of collapsing, growth could be limited.

Yuga Labs, 101 Bored Ape Yacht Club, 2021. Sold for $ 24.4 million. Courtesy of Sotheby’s

NFT market capitalization will challenge traditional art market capitalization, but not for long

There are several estimates of the value of the NFT market. What is clear is that 2021 was its landmark year, and it generated between $ 23 billion and $ 40 billion in the past 12 months. That’s a mind boggling figure considering that a year ago only insiders knew about the concept of the non-fungible token, and for months after Beeple was sold for $ 69 million, traditional art players still hadn’t fully grasped its meaning. But the new art form continued to grab headlines, Crypto Punks and Bored Apes continued to sell in seven- and eight-figure brackets, and everyone from celebrities to luxury brands to artists. – wanted a piece of it. The actors of the art market were quick to enter the fold and take a part. Besides its all-digital format, however, the cause of NFTs was twofold, but the initial rallying cry of this emerging community – to speak the truth to power and get rid of the dominant market elites – seems to have become secondary to, what d other, the allure of quick money.